Service Plays Wednesday 02/04/09

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To all services and professional handicappers. I am only going to be editing posts where your copyrighted write-ups are involved. Please do not email me if someone simply posts so and so likes xyz team plus or minus so many points only.
Thank you, wilheim..

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Confidential Tip-Off (CTO)

WEDNESDAY

SOUTHERN MISS over *East Carolina....C-USA sources warn us not to put much stock in ECU’s comeback win at lower-rung SMU (Jan. 24), since “emotionally-fragile” (says HC McCarthy), previously-laboring Pirates (dropped 7 of previous 8) still seeking signature conference victory. Won’t happen here. Defense-minded USM (61 ppg), which has won 8 of last 10 games (thru Jan. 26), getting lift from sizzling sr. G Craft, who’s erupted for 61 pts. last 3 games. Eagles tried-and-true Gs Wise & Beasley outduel Pirate backcourt, with top-scoring G Hinnant (16 ppg, 36% FGs, 29% treys) mired in shooting slump. USM’s Eustachy notches 6th straight series win & cover.
SOUTHERN MISS 74 - *East Carolina 63 RATING - 10
 
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POINTWISE

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

UAB over Tulane (Wed) RATING: 2
OKLAHOMA over Texas A&M (Wed) RATING: 3
LSU over Georgia (Wed) RATING: 5

NBA
BASKETBALL

WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 4 SCORE
(7:05) LA Lakers 106 - TORONTO RAPTORS 104
(7:05) ORLANDO MAGIC 103 - LA Clippers 83
(7:05) New Jersey Nets 96 - WASHINGTON 90
(7:35) NEW YORK KNICKS 100 - Cleveland Cavs 99
(7:35) Miami Heat 109 - DETROIT PISTONS 103
(8:05) Houston Rockets 98 - MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES 90
(8:05) Denver Nuggets 109 - OKLAHOMA CITY 106
(8:05) MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES 97 - Atlanta 94
(8:05) NEW ORLEANS HORNETS 116 - Chicago Bulls 94
(8:35) Portland Trailblazers 102 - DALLAS MAVS 101
(10:35) Phoenix Suns 99 - GOLDEN ST WARRIORS 92
BEST BETS: ORLANDO (2), NEW YORK, NEW ORLEANS (3)
 

Bullitt
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Nice new avatar cpaw!

Raging Bull Soccer

Juventus -150 (Coppa Italia)

Doncaster Rovers/Aston Villa over 2.5 (English FA Cup)

Feyenoord Rotterdam/Sparta Rotterdam over 2.5 (Dutch Eredivisie)
 

Bullitt
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ATS Sports Club
February 4, 2009

Soccer:

Liverpool +130 (English FA Cup)

NEC Nijmegen vs. FC Groningen over 2.5 (Dutch Eredivisie)

Palmeiras vs. Real Potosi over 2.5 (Copa Libertadores)
 

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The Soccer Guru

record since return: 1-2

todays play: Feyenoord(Eredivisie) -200 will win by 2+
 

Bullitt
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Lee Kostroski
REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 8* Central Florida (-3) vs. Houston, Wednesday at 7:00 PM EST

UCF is playing as well as any team in Conference USA not named Memphis. The Golden Knights have won 5 straight games and they are on a 7-0 ATS run. The odds makers still have not caught up with this team. They are very good right now.

UCF is 11-2 at home with their only losses coming at the hands of Florida and Memphis. They played Memphis tougher than any other team in the conference has this year losing by just 7 points. However, the game was even closer than the final indicated. The Tigers led by just 3 points with 47 seconds remaining in the game. During their 5 game winning stretch the Knights have been outstanding on both ends of the court. They’ve scorched the nets shooting 51% as a team while allowing their opponents to shoot only 37%. In conference play, this team is #1 in offensive points per possession and #3 in defensive points per possession in the 12 team conference. Their points per possession differential is a very good +0.180 in league games. The numbers show this is the best overall offensive team in the conference as they are #1 in field goal percentage, #1 in 3-point percentage and #1 in free throw percentage. They have perhaps the best player in Conference USA in Jermaine Taylor who is shooting over 50% from the field, over 41% from 3-point land and averaging 24 PPG.

Houston is struggling right now. They are in a bad spot coming off their “Conference Game of the Year” at Memphis on Saturday. The Cougs really wanted to make a statement in that game, but instead they fell flat losing 83-68. That was their third straight loss. Ever since blowing a big lead @ Arizona and losing, this team has been whipped at home by UTEP and lost @ Memphis. Now they travel for the second straight game and this will be their 5th road game in their last 7 outings. Another letdown is in order and that’s not a good thing when traveling to team that is playing great basketball. Lay this small number as UCF continues their roll.
 

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Lee Kostroski
REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 5* Creighton (-2) vs. Drake, Wednesday at 8:00 PM EST

It’s not often that the Creighton Blue Jays are seeking revenge from an earlier season loss at home. That’s because they don’t lose very often at home. The Jays have lost just 7 games at home since the start of the 2005 season. They are 11-2 in the Qwest Center this year with one of their losses coming at the hands of this Drake team just a week and a half ago. It was Creighton’s worst performance at home in quite some time. The lack of effort and hustle that defines Dana Altman’s teams was not there. They shot just 30% from the field and were outrebounded by 11. A close game turned Drake’s way down the stretch when the Jays missed 16 of their final 20 shots and were outscored 28-15 over the final 13 minutes. Creighton had a 6-point halftime lead but shot just 22% in the second half while the Bulldogs went crazy hitting nearly 57%. After the loss the upset Altman stated, “I’m disappointed in myself. I’m disappointed with our team for not doing a better job today.” You can bet this team will be ready on Wednesday night.

The Bulldogs began the season on a huge run winning 13 of their first 16 games. However as of late this team has not been playing well. In fact, their only win since January 11th was @ Creighton. This team has lost 5 of their last 6 and two straight at home. Their most recent loss at home was to an Evansville team that had been playing very poorly coming into that game. The Aces had lost 4 of 5, including a 22-point home loss to Creighton. This Bulldog team is simply struggling to put the ball in the hole. Minus their win @ Creighton, they are averaging just 54 PPG since January 11th. They are shooting just 39% over their last 5 games and that INCLUDES their 57% outburst in the second half of the Blue Jay game which looks to be an aberration.

Creighton is 7-4 in conference play and their points per possession differential is +0.062. Drake is 5-6 in the league and their points per possession differential tells us they are not a good team right now as it stands at -0.004 in conference play. Creighton is a veteran team with four seniors and two juniors in the rotation and they are not fazed by playing on the road. They are 3-3 this year away from home in league play. They get revenge tonight and top a struggling Drake team.
 

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JEFFERSON-SPORTS been on fire

Hit 11 of last 13 in the NBA
Hit 13 of last 17 all sports picks
48-31 documented in gmrchar thread (61%)


Finished NFL SEASON 58-30-2 in the NFL (66%) 8-3 in NFL PLAYOFFS

NBA EARLY RELEASE FOR WEDS
DENVER UNDER 214.5


Billups banged up last night will either keep him out or limit his playing time tomorrow night. He is definitely the general of that offense and it should struggle enough to dip under this number. OKC has had a few days off and D was a major focus of the extra time. They have been improving defensively.
 
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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Kentucky (-10) Tuesday night.

Tonight it's Miami, Ohio. The profit is 100 sirignanos.
 
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Roz Juarbe

(521) PHOENIX SUNS
(522) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Take "Over"

You will see a lot of things this game...except defense. Phoenix allows the 6th most points in the NBA, but at least they have their offense on track, scoring 129 points the last game. In fact, they are on a 2-1 run over the total. Golden State is dead last in the NBA allowing 111 ppg. They just allowed 110 points in back to back games to Houston and San Antonio -- two slower, defensive-oriented squads. This shapes up as a run-and-gun encounter from start to finish. Play the Suns/Warriors over the total.
 
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Jim Feist

(513) DENVER NUGGETS
(514) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Take "Over"

These teams are in the top 12 in points allowed in the NBA. As far as field goal shooting defense is concerned, an excellent indicator of defensive effort, Oklahoma City allows over 47% from the field, 5th worst in the league. They are playing less and less 'D', on a 6-3 run over the total, which is not surprising as they are going nowhere. Uptempo Denver is on an 11-6-1 run over the total. These teams met 4 weeks ago and Denver won 122-120, sailing over the total by 36 points! Play the Nuggets/Warriors over the total.
 
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Dave Cokin

(543) HOUSTON
(544) CENTRAL FLORIDA
Take "(544) CENTRAL FLORIDA"

The wheels have suddenly come off for Houston. The Cougars had a massive late collapse at Arizona a few games back and they haven't won since. That does not bode at all well for them this evening, as Central Florida has been absolute money in the bank at home all season. Houston is probably the slightly more talented team, but the situation favors UCD, so my lean is to the home favorite.
 

Bullitt
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ATS Sports Club
February 4, 2009

Soccer:

Liverpool +130 (English FA Cup)

NEC Nijmegen vs. FC Groningen over 2.5 (Dutch Eredivisie)

Palmeiras vs. Real Potosi over 2.5 (Copa Libertadores)

NBA:

Lakers -8
Suns/Warriors over 229

NHL:

Coyotes/Red Wings over 5.5
Leafs/Sabres over 6

NCAA:

Wake Forest -2
Nebraska -4
Texas -3
 

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Honest Dog Sport Investment Service

NCAAB
Richmond/Mass Play Richmond +5 rating 4.1
James Madison/Georgia St Play James Madison +1 rating 5.2

NBA
LA/Toronto Play LA -7.5 rating 4.4
 

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Las Vegas Sport Picks

NCAA:

1* Oklahoma -13
2* Mississippi -3

NBA:

1* Nuggets -4.5
2* Suns/Warriors over 229
3* Clippers +14

NHL:

1* Leafs/Sabres over 6
 

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Overthespread.com

20 Dimes on James Madison +1
20 Dimes on Miami Heat +4
Free Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins

Bonus Bonus Plays: Richmond & Delaware

Paid & Confirmed
 

Living on potted meats
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Dr. Canada

Game 1 - Leafs/Sabres over 6

Game 2 - Wild -140
 

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RON RAYMOND’S 5* NBA O/U GAME OF THE WEEK! (69% WINNER INSIDE)

Pick # 1 New Jersey Nets /Washington Wizards Over 191.5 -110


RON RAYMOND’S 5* NHL BEST BET + 2 BONUS PICKS!

Pick # 1 Boston Bruins (-130)


Pick # 2 Tampa Bay Lightning (190)


Pick # 3 Anaheim Ducks (120)
 
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Lee Kostroski

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->REASON FOR PICK: 8* Play on: Atlanta Hawks (+) over Minnesota T'Wolves

Today I step out with a large wager on the Atlanta Hawks (+) over the Minnesota Timberwolves. This really is the perfect spot for a bet ON Atlanta and AGAINST Minnesota and I’ll take advantage of a generous number by the oddsmakers. Atlanta comes into this game fully rested as they’ve been off since last Saturday which has given them valuable practice time the past three days. Minnesota meanwhile is coming off a game last night at Indiana and this will be their 3rd game in a four night span, 4th in six nights and 5th game in eight nights. Not to mention last night they expended a ton of energy in a dramatic come from behind win over the Pacers. Fatigue was certainly a factor last night as evidenced by the T’Wolves 21 turnovers which is a sure sign of mental weakness. On the season the Wolves are just 7-15-1 ATS at home and in their last 18 home games they are 6-12 SU but only ONE of those wins came against a team with a winning record which was New Orleans who had injuries at the time. Overall the T’Wolves are 2-11 ATS at home against teams with a better than .500 record.

Now some of you are questioning how we could take the Hawks tonight without their All-Star guard Joe Johnson but that will be a POSITIVE in our favor. You see, Johnson really hasn’t been playing that well lately and typically when a big name starter misses a game the bench players elevate their play the first game out when getting more minutes. Johnson is having a poor season shooting the ball as his season average of 42.7% FG percent is the lowest of his career. In his last seven games he’s really struggled with his ‘stroke’ as he was just 44 of 119 or 37%. Replacing Johnson in the starting lineup will be Mo Evans but he’s not the guy that will pick up JJ’s scoring load. That will fall on the shoulders of Ronald Murray and we’re quite confident he’ll rise to the occasion and here’s why. Murray doesn’t get nearly as many minutes as Johnson gets but take a look at what he’s done his last seven games. Murray is 49 of 105 from the field for 47%, averaging over 18 ppg. So no, the Hawks won’t struggle to score points without Johnson on the floor tonight AND they are getting their starting center Al Horford back tonight who will be fresh and able to contain Al Jefferson in the post. Atlanta has struggled on the road this season but with the Wolves in a tough scheduling spot we like the Hawks to win this game by double digits. Play Atlanta!
 

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